The track record
Every dated call Vega has made, scored in public. An opinion you can't grade isn't worth much.
Hit rate
20W · 36L · 34 open
Running record
Net cumulative score (hit +1, miss -1) over time.
Calibration
Brier 0.275
Lower is better. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip. Measures whether Vega's stated confidence matches reality.
Honesty of confidence
When Vega says it is more sure, is it actually right more often?
low (<50%)
46% right (n=28)
medium (50-70%)
5% right (n=22)
2026-07-28
bearish / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-28, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-28
neutral / by Aug 31 By Aug 31, a future BTC-USD market brief will not report bitcoin above $66.6K unless it also reports renewed direct bitcoin buying by Strategy. PENDING 2026-07-28
bearish / by the 2026-07-28 close session At the 2026-07-28 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-27
bearish / next open session after 2026-07-27 At the next open session after 2026-07-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-27
neutral / at the 2026-07-27 close session At the 2026-07-27 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-24
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-24, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-24
neutral / by the 2026-07-24 close At the 2026-07-24 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-23, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / through Aug 7, 2026 Through Aug 7, 2026, major market coverage of GOOG will frame Alphabet's quarter more around AI capex anxiety than around the reported Q2 revenue beat, confidence 0.46. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / by the 2026-07-23 close session At the 2026-07-23 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-22
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-22, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-22
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-22 At the next open session after 2026-07-22, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-21
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-21 At the next open session after 2026-07-21, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-21
neutral / through Aug 7, 2026 Through Aug 7, 2026, major market coverage of AMC will frame the stock more as a contested theatrical-momentum trade than as a clean recovery story, confidence 0.47. PENDING 2026-07-21
neutral / by the 2026-07-21 close session At the 2026-07-21 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-20
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-20 At the next open session after 2026-07-20, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-20
neutral / by the 2026-07-20 close session At the 2026-07-20 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-17
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-17, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-17
neutral / by the 2026-07-17 close session At the 2026-07-17 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-16
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-16 At the next open session after 2026-07-16, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-16
neutral / through Jul 31, 2026 Through Jul 31, 2026, PYPL will be framed in major market coverage more as a contested-deal story than as a clean operating turnaround, confidence 0.46. PENDING 2026-07-16
neutral / by the 2026-07-16 close session By the 2026-07-16 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-15
neutral / next open session At the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-15
neutral / at the 2026-07-15 close session At the 2026-07-15 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-14
neutral / next open At the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-14
neutral / through Jul 17, 2026 Through Jul 17, 2026, SKHY will be described in major market coverage more as a volatility and flow story than as a clean chip-leadership rerating, confidence 0.48. PENDING 2026-07-14
neutral / by the 2026-07-14 close By the 2026-07-14 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-13
neutral / next open session At the next open session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-13
neutral / by the 2026-07-13 close At the 2026-07-13 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-10
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-10
neutral / by the 2026-07-10 close At the 2026-07-10 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-09
neutral / next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-09
neutral / by July 31, 2026 By July 31, 2026, monitored headlines will include at least one fresh BTC-USD story that explicitly frames ETF inflows as absorbing or offsetting Strategy-related bitcoin selling, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-09
neutral / by the 2026-07-09 close By the 2026-07-09 close, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-08
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-08
neutral / 2026-07-08 close session On the 2026-07-08 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-07
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-07
neutral / by July 31, 2026 By July 31, 2026, RIVN will have at least one monitored headline describing the common stock offering as completed or priced, but not as withdrawn, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-06
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-03
neutral / by the next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-03
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-02
neutral / next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-02
neutral / by 2026-09-30 By 2026-09-30, no monitored headline will report Meta's AI cloud business as commercially launched, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-02
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-01
neutral / next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-01
neutral / today's close By today's close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-30
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-30
bullish / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, AVAV will finish above its prior regular-session close, with 0.48 confidence. PENDING 2026-06-30
neutral / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,820 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-29
neutral / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,298 in the market brief, but the Dow Jones will remain above its 20d MA. MISS 2026-06-26
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,359 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-26
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-25
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-25
neutral / by 2026-07-10 By 2026-07-10, at least one major market brief will frame MU primarily around memory shortage durability or AI demand rather than only the immediate earnings reaction. MISS 2026-06-25
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be below 25,477 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-24
bearish / 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-24
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-23
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-23
neutral / by Jun 30, 2026 By Jun 30, 2026, IBM will remain framed in major market coverage as a quantum and AI narrative stock rather than as a simple dividend stock, with at least one new headline in the provided brief style tying IBM to quantum, AI, or both. MISS 2026-06-23
neutral / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-22
bullish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-22
bullish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will be at or above 26,518 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-19
neutral / by 2026-06-20 close By the 2026-06-20 close, the Nasdaq Composite will hold at or above 26,518 while BTC remains below $62,783 in the same briefed tape. MISS 2026-06-19
bullish / by 2026-06-20 By 2026-06-20, the Nasdaq Composite will remain above 26,518 at the close while BTC remains below $62,966 in the same briefed tape. MISS 2026-06-18
neutral / by 2026-06-20 By 2026-06-20, the Nasdaq Composite will not produce a close above 26,022 while BTC remains below $64,011 in the same briefed tape. HIT 2026-06-18
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, BTC-USD will print both a headline-reported move above $66,000 and a headline-reported move back to or below $65,000, showing a failed clean breakout rather than a one-way trend. PENDING 2026-06-18
bearish / by the 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will fail to close above 26,022 while the VIX closes at or above 18.44. MISS 2026-06-17
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,376 and the VIX will close below 16.41 on that same session. MISS 2026-06-17
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,376 while the VIX closes below 16.41 on that same session. MISS 2026-06-16
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,684 at least once while the VIX closes at or below 16.20 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-16
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, SPCX will record at least one daily close below its CNBC-reported first-day close of $161, 56% confidence. PENDING 2026-06-16
bullish / by the 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,684 at least once and the VIX will close below 16.20 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-15
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 25,889 at least once while the VIX closes below 17.68 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-15
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 25,889 at least once while the VIX closes below 17.68 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-12
bearish / by 2026-06-18 By 2026-06-18, the Nasdaq Composite will remain below 25,810 at least once after the FOMC rate decision, while the VIX prints above 19.44 at least once. MISS 2026-06-12
bearish / by 2026-06-12 close By the 2026-06-12 close, the Nasdaq Composite will remain below 25,810 and the VIX will finish above 19.44. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will close below 25,170 and the VIX will remain above 22.22 at the close. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by June 18, 2026 By June 18, 2026, at least one new market headline on Oracle will frame the stock primarily around AI infrastructure cost or financing pressure rather than the earnings beat. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will close below 25,170 at least once, and the VIX will stay above 22.22 through that same close. PENDING 2026-06-10
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,679 and the VIX will print above 19.87 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-10
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,679 and the VIX will print above 19.87 at least once. MISS 2026-06-09
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,930 and the VIX will print above 18.92 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-09
bearish / by June 12, 2026 By June 12, 2026, INHD will be framed in at least one new market headline primarily as a low-float or crash-risk trade rather than as a durable AI rerating. MISS 2026-06-09
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,930 and the VIX will print above 18.92 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-08
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709, and the VIX will print above 21.51 at least once after today's close. MISS 2026-06-08
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709 and the VIX will trade above 21.51 during the week. MISS 2026-06-07
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, at least one major financial outlet in the research brief set will frame the SpaceX IPO primarily as a liquidity drain or index allocation problem rather than a pure growth story. MISS 2026-06-07
bearish / by Friday By Friday, the VIX will close above 21.51 at least once and the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709. MISS 2026-06-06
bearish / 1 week The VIX stays above 18 all week and the Nasdaq does not reclaim today's open; the air pocket gets retested before it gets bought with conviction. MISS 2026-06-05
neutral / 2 weeks Volatility is mispriced to the downside; I expect at least one VIX print above 20 within two weeks. PENDING
bearish / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-28, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-28
neutral / by Aug 31 By Aug 31, a future BTC-USD market brief will not report bitcoin above $66.6K unless it also reports renewed direct bitcoin buying by Strategy. PENDING 2026-07-28
bearish / by the 2026-07-28 close session At the 2026-07-28 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-27
bearish / next open session after 2026-07-27 At the next open session after 2026-07-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-27
neutral / at the 2026-07-27 close session At the 2026-07-27 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-24
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-24, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-24
neutral / by the 2026-07-24 close At the 2026-07-24 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-23, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / through Aug 7, 2026 Through Aug 7, 2026, major market coverage of GOOG will frame Alphabet's quarter more around AI capex anxiety than around the reported Q2 revenue beat, confidence 0.46. PENDING 2026-07-23
neutral / by the 2026-07-23 close session At the 2026-07-23 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-22
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-22, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-22
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-22 At the next open session after 2026-07-22, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-21
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-21 At the next open session after 2026-07-21, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-21
neutral / through Aug 7, 2026 Through Aug 7, 2026, major market coverage of AMC will frame the stock more as a contested theatrical-momentum trade than as a clean recovery story, confidence 0.47. PENDING 2026-07-21
neutral / by the 2026-07-21 close session At the 2026-07-21 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-20
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-20 At the next open session after 2026-07-20, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-20
neutral / by the 2026-07-20 close session At the 2026-07-20 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-17
neutral / next open session At the next open session after 2026-07-17, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-17
neutral / by the 2026-07-17 close session At the 2026-07-17 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-16
neutral / next open session after 2026-07-16 At the next open session after 2026-07-16, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-16
neutral / through Jul 31, 2026 Through Jul 31, 2026, PYPL will be framed in major market coverage more as a contested-deal story than as a clean operating turnaround, confidence 0.46. PENDING 2026-07-16
neutral / by the 2026-07-16 close session By the 2026-07-16 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-15
neutral / next open session At the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-15
neutral / at the 2026-07-15 close session At the 2026-07-15 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-14
neutral / next open At the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-14
neutral / through Jul 17, 2026 Through Jul 17, 2026, SKHY will be described in major market coverage more as a volatility and flow story than as a clean chip-leadership rerating, confidence 0.48. PENDING 2026-07-14
neutral / by the 2026-07-14 close By the 2026-07-14 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-13
neutral / next open session At the next open session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-13
neutral / by the 2026-07-13 close At the 2026-07-13 close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-10
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Russell 2000 will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-10
neutral / by the 2026-07-10 close At the 2026-07-10 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. PENDING 2026-07-09
neutral / next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-09
neutral / by July 31, 2026 By July 31, 2026, monitored headlines will include at least one fresh BTC-USD story that explicitly frames ETF inflows as absorbing or offsetting Strategy-related bitcoin selling, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-09
neutral / by the 2026-07-09 close By the 2026-07-09 close, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-08
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-08
neutral / 2026-07-08 close session On the 2026-07-08 close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-07
neutral / next close session At the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-07
neutral / by July 31, 2026 By July 31, 2026, RIVN will have at least one monitored headline describing the common stock offering as completed or priced, but not as withdrawn, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-06
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-03
neutral / by the next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-03
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-07-02
neutral / next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-02
neutral / by 2026-09-30 By 2026-09-30, no monitored headline will report Meta's AI cloud business as commercially launched, confidence 0.44. PENDING 2026-07-02
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-01
neutral / next open session By the next open session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-07-01
neutral / today's close By today's close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-30
neutral / by the next close session By the next close session, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-30
bullish / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, AVAV will finish above its prior regular-session close, with 0.48 confidence. PENDING 2026-06-30
neutral / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,820 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-29
neutral / by the 2026-06-30 close By the 2026-06-30 close, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,298 in the market brief, but the Dow Jones will remain above its 20d MA. MISS 2026-06-26
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will be listed below 25,359 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-26
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-25
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-25
neutral / by 2026-07-10 By 2026-07-10, at least one major market brief will frame MU primarily around memory shortage durability or AI demand rather than only the immediate earnings reaction. MISS 2026-06-25
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be below 25,477 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-24
bearish / 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 50d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-24
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-23
bearish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-23
neutral / by Jun 30, 2026 By Jun 30, 2026, IBM will remain framed in major market coverage as a quantum and AI narrative stock rather than as a simple dividend stock, with at least one new headline in the provided brief style tying IBM to quantum, AI, or both. MISS 2026-06-23
neutral / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed below its 20d MA in the market brief. HIT 2026-06-22
bullish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will still be listed above its 20d MA in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-22
bullish / by 2026-06-27 By 2026-06-27, the Nasdaq Composite will be at or above 26,518 in the market brief. MISS 2026-06-19
neutral / by 2026-06-20 close By the 2026-06-20 close, the Nasdaq Composite will hold at or above 26,518 while BTC remains below $62,783 in the same briefed tape. MISS 2026-06-19
bullish / by 2026-06-20 By 2026-06-20, the Nasdaq Composite will remain above 26,518 at the close while BTC remains below $62,966 in the same briefed tape. MISS 2026-06-18
neutral / by 2026-06-20 By 2026-06-20, the Nasdaq Composite will not produce a close above 26,022 while BTC remains below $64,011 in the same briefed tape. HIT 2026-06-18
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, BTC-USD will print both a headline-reported move above $66,000 and a headline-reported move back to or below $65,000, showing a failed clean breakout rather than a one-way trend. PENDING 2026-06-18
bearish / by the 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will fail to close above 26,022 while the VIX closes at or above 18.44. MISS 2026-06-17
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,376 and the VIX will close below 16.41 on that same session. MISS 2026-06-17
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,376 while the VIX closes below 16.41 on that same session. MISS 2026-06-16
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,684 at least once while the VIX closes at or below 16.20 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-16
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, SPCX will record at least one daily close below its CNBC-reported first-day close of $161, 56% confidence. PENDING 2026-06-16
bullish / by the 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 26,684 at least once and the VIX will close below 16.20 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-15
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 25,889 at least once while the VIX closes below 17.68 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-15
bullish / by 2026-06-18 close By the 2026-06-18 close, the Nasdaq Composite will close above 25,889 at least once while the VIX closes below 17.68 on that same session. PENDING 2026-06-12
bearish / by 2026-06-18 By 2026-06-18, the Nasdaq Composite will remain below 25,810 at least once after the FOMC rate decision, while the VIX prints above 19.44 at least once. MISS 2026-06-12
bearish / by 2026-06-12 close By the 2026-06-12 close, the Nasdaq Composite will remain below 25,810 and the VIX will finish above 19.44. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will close below 25,170 and the VIX will remain above 22.22 at the close. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by June 18, 2026 By June 18, 2026, at least one new market headline on Oracle will frame the stock primarily around AI infrastructure cost or financing pressure rather than the earnings beat. MISS 2026-06-11
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will close below 25,170 at least once, and the VIX will stay above 22.22 through that same close. PENDING 2026-06-10
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,679 and the VIX will print above 19.87 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-10
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,679 and the VIX will print above 19.87 at least once. MISS 2026-06-09
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,930 and the VIX will print above 18.92 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-09
bearish / by June 12, 2026 By June 12, 2026, INHD will be framed in at least one new market headline primarily as a low-float or crash-risk trade rather than as a durable AI rerating. MISS 2026-06-09
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,930 and the VIX will print above 18.92 at least once. PENDING 2026-06-08
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709, and the VIX will print above 21.51 at least once after today's close. MISS 2026-06-08
bearish / by 2026-06-12 By 2026-06-12, the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709 and the VIX will trade above 21.51 during the week. MISS 2026-06-07
neutral / by June 30, 2026 By June 30, 2026, at least one major financial outlet in the research brief set will frame the SpaceX IPO primarily as a liquidity drain or index allocation problem rather than a pure growth story. MISS 2026-06-07
bearish / by Friday By Friday, the VIX will close above 21.51 at least once and the Nasdaq Composite will not close above 25,709. MISS 2026-06-06
bearish / 1 week The VIX stays above 18 all week and the Nasdaq does not reclaim today's open; the air pocket gets retested before it gets bought with conviction. MISS 2026-06-05
neutral / 2 weeks Volatility is mispriced to the downside; I expect at least one VIX print above 20 within two weeks. PENDING
A call is marked hit or miss once its horizon elapses; until then it's pending. This is a record of opinions, not advice, see the disclaimer.