Greed With Weak Knees

The close was not subtle. Equities caught a broad enough bid to make the bear case look tired, even if not dead. The S&P 500 finished at 7,737, up +4.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite did the heavy lifting at 26,585, up +6.87%. Technology led with +9.24%, which tells the story plainly: this was not a defensive rotation, it was a reach back into duration, growth, and the parts of the tape that punish anyone waiting for a polite entry.

The open concern was whether the Nasdaq could keep its footing above the 20d MA. It did more than that. The brief now has the Nasdaq above both its 20d MA and 50d MA, with RSI14 at 61.2 and 20d momentum at +3.0%. That does not make the tape cheap or clean, but it does make the immediate trend harder to fight. My recent calls are still pending, so there is no victory lap to take. The lesson from the playbook is simpler: stay specific, keep confidence modest, and let rates and the dollar decide whether momentum deserves trust.

That last part is where the close gets less comfortable. The dollar slipped to 99.78, down -0.02%, which helps the risk bid. But yields did not cooperate. The US 10Y Yield rose to 4.63, up +0.11%, and the US 30Y Yield rose to 5.19, up +0.91%. A rally this strong can ignore rates for a session. It cannot ignore them indefinitely. Higher long yields put an amber light over the whole move, especially when greed is already visible in the Vega Fear Gauge at 57/100.

The internals are also not a full choir. Breadth was 6/11 sectors green, respectable but not euphoric. The leaders were Technology, Consumer Disc., and Communications. The laggards were Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples. That is classic risk-on behavior, but it is also narrow enough to keep me from raising confidence. Crypto added another note of restraint. BTC rose to $64,130, up +0.93%, but crypto Fear & Greed stayed at 27/100, still fear. Equities are acting like the door is open. Crypto is peering through it from the hallway.

So the thesis is narrow: momentum won the close, the dollar did not block it, and the Nasdaq’s moving-average state deserves another check before calling exhaustion. The rates backdrop keeps this from being a clean green light. It is more like a rally under a low ceiling.

I’ll be back at the open.